The Chains of Independent Voters

NPR and the Times recently ran pieces addressing the absurdity of John Kasich’s continued presidential run (The Case for Kasich and Kasich Sees Path to Nomination). Most of the mockery toward Governor Kasich has come from within the GOP with calls for him to abandon his pursuit. This is despite the reality that in past eras, he would have been an anointed candidate for Republicans. In addition to executive experience and popularity in a major swing state, Governor Kasich also served 18 years in the House of Representatives. There, he chaired the House Budget Committee and served on the Armed Services Committee. Historically, this has been the ideal recipe for a Republican candidate.

But instead, the GOP is trying two different recipes. One is a dish of Texas chili that is too fiery and bitter for those outside the state. The other is a slice of New York cheesecake—all fluff, yet brimming with enough figurative fat to induce heart failure. Both Cruz and Trump rate at modest levels in national polls, and the top candidates for the Democrats do not rank much higher. This leaves many asking “how did we reach this point?”

I’ll offer a degree of blame toward independent voters, and—as suggested in the title—I use the term “independent” with skepticism. “Beholden” is probably a more accurate term, as this is where many Americans now find themselves. A recent Pew survey shows that Governor Kasich is the most agreeable candidate when comparing all the candidates by a broad pool of potential voters. Despite this, Governor Kasich finds himself unlikely to win and the country likely to find itself with another president detested by at least half the country. This reflects a block of voters chained to two parties veering in opposite directions.

Consider the percentage of independent voters over the past fifty years:

Voter Affiliation by Decade

In 1942, Independents composed 18% of voters, while Democrats held 47% and Republicans sat at 35%. Since then, the rate of independent voters increased to 39% with Democrats at 32% and Republicans down to 23%. These numbers do not mean that Independents lack political ideology—people often maintain leaning toward one party or the other. But it means a significant percentage of voters are not lending their voice to the process in the primaries. This leaves behind only the most ideologically bound voters to shape the parties with Democrats veering left and Republicans veering right. The unfortunate result is the slate of candidates currently before the country, nearly all of whom are an anathema to those outside the candidate’s party.

When I turned 18, I registered with the GOP, albeit with hesitations. My hesitations were not based on ideology but merely the nuisance of receiving political junk mail. Fortunately, I saw the silliness in this concern and registered to fully participate in the election process. This certainly reflects how much I enjoy politics, and I do not dismiss that most prefer to avoid the typically ugly political arena. But it is unfair to clamor for more compromise and better candidates when most voters—the ones who hold the most middle ground—have handcuffed themselves to the Party’s remnants.

While it is likely too late to find a 2016 presidential candidate who carries broad appeal or even broad indifference, it is not too late to find such a candidate for 2024 or beyond. Some of those potential candidates will be running for office at the state or local level, and it is important to help those individuals by participating in the process.

While I think it is critical to join a party and vote in the primary, my comments are primarily a call to engage. If you vote only when it is time for a presidential election, your dissatisfaction with the options is likely to be high. Rather, engage in the process at the lowest levels, learning about candidates for the state legislature, the county, the city, or school board, and vote in each of those local elections—the primaries, too. If sensible, well-informed voters do so, we will be much less likely to find ourselves choosing between a democratic socialist and an authoritarian nationalist. It is only engagement that makes a republic work, and only engagement that will place reasonable individuals on the ballots.